What has happened to Florida’s Democrats?
Why have Democrats lost Southwest Florida?
Short answer: because they’re not Republicans. In the General Election of 2024,439,000 people voted in Sarasota, Charlotte, and DeSoto Counties. About 65% of them voted Republican. Why?
Spoiler alert: It’s not the issues.
Take a look at the four state representative races. The losing Democrats (I was one of them, in House District 75) vowed to fight for low insurance rates, controlled subdivision growth, affordable housing and clean water. These are all popular local issues. The victorious candidates, on the other hand, were by and large silent on the insurance crisis and uncontrolled development. What did they have that the Democrats didn’t?
Money and Timing (and vagueness).
For instance, James Buchanan representing District 74 in Sarasota County, had a war chest of $1,332,274. It’s hard to beat that. He only needed about $140,000 to dispatch Nancy Simpson, who spent less than $6,000. Similarly, my opponent Danny Nix raised more than $420,000 – so much more than he needed that he was able to pass $95,000 along to the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee.
And Vanessa Oliver, in a district that includes DeSoto County and parts of Charlotte and Lee, raised five times as much as her opponent Jim Blue.
Only Derek Reich raised as much as his opponent – and still lost by 13 points to Fiona McFarland. Where did all that Republican money come from? To be fair a lot of it came from family and average Joe’s. But the big contributors were insurance companies, land developers, and PACs, PACs, and more PACs. It’s pretty easy to see who some of those PACs represent, such as the Florida Home Builders Association and Sentry Insurance. Others are a little more misty, like Building a Brighter Future for Florida and Florida Courage.
And the hand of Eric Robinson was seen coordinating much of this giving. He was the treasurer of three of the Republican candidates’ campaigns. He has helped build a bloc in the Florida House that will protect the status quo, which might be described as “High Insurance Bills and Unlimited Subdivision Sprawl.” That slogan wouldn’t work on campaign billboards, which is where timing comes in. In this cycle, the strong winds were all behind national issues, like our porous southern border. For local issues vagueness ruled. Buchanan promised to keep Florida safe from illegal immigration (we have too many roofers and restaurant workers). Nix would “fight tirelessly for every Floridian.”
For Vanessa Oliver the biggest insurance issue was fraud, and it was overlooked that she was blaming her constituents for causing rates to soar by scamming insurance companies. None of the Republicans ventured a position on the main statewide issue, abortion. Voters gave them a pass. Is there any hope for Democrats? It’ll always be tough, but the headwinds from national elections will not always be so overpowering. Sticking with local issues that voters care about will produce victories. Getting younger people to run is also crucial because you have to go a couple of rounds to build name recognition.
Older folks get too impatient. I can tell you that from experience.
Tony Dunbar, a writer and retired lawyer, ran as a Democrat for the state L=egisla-
ture in 2024. He lives in Englewood.
